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A majority of Americans now support a youth social media ban. And they aren't alone: 26 countries have already implemented, passed, or are actively debating similar legislation.

—Pew Research Center

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It's no secret that many parents are concerned about how much time young people spend online. Now, a majority of Americans want government action. According to a new Pew survey, 56% of US adults support banning social media for children under 16, while just 21% oppose such legislation.

By demographic group, parents with children under age 18 are, unsurprisingly, the strongest supporters of a ban (65%). Adults ages 30–49 rank second (63%). This cohort is not only the most likely to be raising young children, but it was also the first generation to grow up alongside social media. As a result, many have firsthand experience with its downsides.

Support also spans the political spectrum. Republicans are somewhat more likely than Democrats to favor a ban (59% vs. 54%), but majorities of both parties support the idea. In an era of deep political polarization, tech-lash is one of the few issues that commands broad bipartisan agreement. (See “Tech-Lash Intensifies.”)

Because this is the first time Pew has asked about a youth social media ban, it's impossible to say whether support has risen or fallen over time. However, Pew has found growing support over the past three years for policies such as parental consent requirements, age verification, and time-limit settings.

Around the world, seven countries have already implemented youth social media bans, with Australia the most prominent Western example. Three others, including France and the United Kingdom, have passed similar legislation but have yet to enforce it. Another 15 countries, along with the European Union, are actively debating comparable proposals.

Enforcement may prove difficult, but the political momentum is unmistakable. Parents are demanding action, and governments are increasingly willing to act.

Between 2000 and 2025, US real GDP grew by +69.2%. Yet the gains were far from evenly distributed.

Draw a line down the middle of the country between Minnesota and the Dakotas, and you'll find that states in the western half generally experienced much stronger economic growth than those in the eastern half.

Draw another line at the southern border of Missouri, Kentucky, and Virginia—and now look at all 22 states in the northeastern quadrant. Not one of them experienced growth at or above the national average. In all the other 28 states, 19 were above average, and sometimes far above.

Fastest-Growing States

• North Dakota: +154%

• Utah: +144%

• Texas: 130%

• Washington: +120%

• Idaho: +104%

Slowest-Growing States

• West Virginia: +31%

• Rhode Island: +31%

• Louisiana: +25%

• Connecticut: +25%

• Michigan: +21%

Americans have lost faith in many of the nation's core institutions. What’s more, the partisan divide has never been wider.

—Gallup

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Back in the mid-1960s, near the end of the American High, roughly 70% to 80% of Americans trusted major institutions, including the federal government, to do what was right. By the late 1970s, following Watergate and the withdrawal from Vietnam, trust had already fallen sharply. But the decline didn't stop there.

Since 1979, Gallup has measured Americans' trust in nine core US institutions, ranging from Congress and newspapers to organized religion and big business. In 2026, just 27% of U.S. adults said they had "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in these institutions. That's down -9 percentage points from 2020 (36%) and -21 percentage points from 1979 (48%).

Between 1979 and 2000, Republicans and Democrats held largely similar views. But beginning in 2001, confidence started to diverge depending on which party controlled the White House. Republicans expressed greater confidence during the Bush and Trump administrations, while Democrats were more confident during the Obama and Biden administrations. Today, Republicans are the more confident of the two groups (36% vs. 23%), and the partisan gap has reached a record 13 percentage points.

This survey simply confirms what we've been documenting for years: American pessimism is high, institutional perceptions have become increasingly partisan, and yes, the Fourth Turning is here. (See “Trust in US Institutions Remains Low.”)

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Over the last 50 years, US ice cream consumption has steadily declined. In 1975, the average American consumed 18.2 pounds of ice cream. In 2025, that figure fell to only 12.0 pounds. That’s a -34.1% decline.

So what’s behind this drop in consumption? There are two main drivers.

• Health Concerns: Americans of all ages are cutting back on high-glycemic foods, while a growing share of younger consumers are also concerned about lactose intolerance and dairy additives. (See “Dairy Industry Is Courting Young People.”) There is also early evidence that the growing use of GLP-1 medications is reducing demand for sugary treats.

• Premium Offerings: Consumers have shifted toward smaller containers of high-end ice cream. Instead of buying a family-size tub of vanilla or chocolate, many are opting for a pint of Ben & Jerry's Phish Food. In other words, when they do eat ice cream, they're eating smaller portions.

Over the last two decades, Americans have spent less and less time socializing. The decline has been especially steep among young people.

—BLS

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The BLS just released the results of its 2025 American Time Use Survey. As we continue to analyze the data, one trend already stands out: Americans are spending less time together.

In 2003, Americans ages 15 and older spent an average of 47 minutes per day socializing face-to-face. By 2025, that had fallen to just 35 minutes, a decline of 12 minutes, or -26%.

While a 12-minute decline may not seem dramatic, the drop among young people has been far steeper. In 2003, Americans ages 15–24 spent an average of 61 minutes per day socializing. By 2025, that figure had fallen to just 35 minutes, a decline of 26 minutes, or -43%.

In fact, young adults recorded the largest decline in face-to-face socializing of any age group, both in absolute minutes and percentage terms. Americans aged 55-64 now spend more time hanging out than teenagers (40 minutes vs. 35 minutes).

So what’s behind this decline? The most obvious factor is the proliferation of smartphones, social media, and digital entertainment. Young people, in particular, now spend a significant share of their free time online: One Gallup poll found that teens spend an average of 4.8 hours per day on social media.

Another factor is the decline of “third places,” the spots outside the home and workplace where people gather, build friendships, and strengthen their communities. A recent analysis by Bloomberg found that over the last two decades, the US has lost over 2,000 golf courses and 7,000 bars. As these venues disappear, opportunities for casual face-to-face interaction diminish.

I suspect this trend will eventually reverse. Historically, periods of crisis have encouraged people to rebuild local institutions and reconnect with their communities. As we approach the apex of the current Fourth Turning, people will naturally band together.

And there are early signs of that shift taking place. For example, the Catholic Church has reported a notable increase in young men attending services, many of whom say they are searching for purpose and belonging—and, above all, community. (See “A New Religious Divide: Young Men vs. Young Women.”)

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The CDC just released state total fertility rates for 2024. The highest rates were concentrated in the American heartland: Kentucky (1.80), North Dakota (1.81), Idaho (1.82), Nebraska (1.92), and South Dakota (2.04).

These states tend to be more socially conservative, with higher levels of religiosity and younger ages at first marriage. They also generally have lower costs of living and more affordable housing, making it easier for families to have children. (See “2026 US Demography Review.”)

In contrast, the lowest fertility rates were concentrated along the West Coast and in the Northeast: Massachusetts (1.38), Oregon (1.36), New Hampshire (1.35), Rhode Island (1.33), and Vermont (1.27). The District of Columbia had the nation’s lowest TFR at just 1.11. That’s 0.49 children below the national figure, 1.60. (Of course, many young people move out of cities to start a family.)

These states tend to have some of the nation’s highest housing costs and living expenses, making it more difficult for young families to afford children.

Middle America also recorded the largest year-over-year increases in fertility: Idaho (+0.03), Colorado (+0.04), Montana (+0.04), and South Dakota (+0.04).

Meanwhile, the largest declines were concentrated in the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast: Mississippi (-0.05), Florida (-0.05), Louisiana (-0.06), New Jersey (-0.06), and the District of Columbia (-0.09).

Less than 20% of Americans think the Founding Fathers would be proud of the country today. While all political parties hold a pessimistic view, Democrats are the most negative.

—Gallup

Every year, as the 4th of July approaches, survey outlets publish poll results on American patriotism. The further we enter the Fourth Turning, the more negative these results have become. Last year, only 58% of US adults said they were "extremely or very proud" to be US citizens. That’s the lowest reading on record. (See “Patriotism Hits New Low.”)

This year, to celebrate the 250th anniversary of America, Gallup revived a question it hadn’t asked since 2013: Do you think the signers of the Declaration of Independence would be pleased or disappointed by the way the United States has turned out?

As you may have guessed, the answer wasn’t positive. Only 19% of Americans believe the Founders would be pleased with America today. That’s an -8 percentage point decline from 2013 (27%) and a whopping -35 percentage point decline from the record high reached in 2001 (54%).

By political affiliation, Democrats are the most pessimistic. Just 13% believe the Founders would be proud of America, down -29 percentage points since 2013. Among independents, 21% agree, a modest 3-point decline. Republicans are the most optimistic at 25%, up +13 points from 2013 when Obama was in office, but still down -32 points from their 2003 peak.

These results add more evidence that Americans are highly pessimistic about the state of the country. And as the Fourth Turning marches on, we suspect these indicators will further deteriorate.

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Last week, we filmed our 2026 US Demography Review. This is our biggest deep dive of the year.

First, we examine the latest trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and domestic mobility before examining the long-term outlook for US population growth. Among the key questions we address:

• Fertility: Will US birth rates recover, or are record lows here to stay?

• Mortality: Why did life expectancy reach a record high in 2024, and can those gains continue?

• Immigration: How many immigrants are entering and leaving the country, and how have these flows changed since President Trump’s election?

• Mobility: Which cities, states, and regions are attracting residents, and which are losing them?

• Population Projections: What does the future hold for US population growth, and could the population eventually begin to decline?

This webcast, which runs 68 minutes, is now available to all paid subscibers.

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Support for gay marriage has fallen for the third consecutive year. Much of the shift has been driven by Republicans, though support has also softened among independents.

—Gallup

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This morning, we filmed our 2026 US Demography Review. This is our biggest deep dive of the year.

First, we examine the latest trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and domestic mobility before examining the long-term outlook for US population growth. Among the key questions we address:

• Fertility: Will US birth rates recover, or are record lows here to stay?

• Mortality: Why did life expectancy reach a record high in 2024, and can those gains continue?

• Immigration: How many immigrants are entering and leaving the country, and how have these flows changed since President Trump’s election?

• Mobility: Which cities, states, and regions are attracting residents, and which are losing them?

• Population Projections: What does the future hold for US population growth, and could the population eventually begin to decline?

This webcast, which runs 68 minutes, is available below to Premium subscribers. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF deck.

Standard paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.

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Licensed franchises now account for a third of global toy sales. From Pokémon to Jurassic Park, toy companies are increasingly selling nostalgia alongside play.

—The Economist

It often feels like every new movie or television show is a remake, reboot, or sequel. Now that same shift toward established intellectual property is reshaping the toy industry. According to Circana, the share of global toy sales tied to licensed IP has grown from 25% to 37% since 2018. That’s an increase of +12 percentage points.

Perhaps no company embodies this trend more than Lego. Just this month, it announced new Pokémon-themed “smart” sets. The toy maker has spent years expanding beyond its original themes, partnering with franchises ranging from Star Wars and Harry Potter to Minecraft and Fortnite. Circana estimates that more than 50% of Lego’s $13B annual revenue comes from licensed IP.

But Lego is hardly alone. Funko’s Pop! vinyl figurines depict everyone from Happy Gilmore to Freddie Mercury. Hasbro sells Monopoly boards based on franchises like X-Men and Dune. And Magic: The Gathering includes crossover sets featuring Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Monty Python, and dozens of other well-known brands.

On the surface, the appeal of licensed IP is obvious: Established franchises come with loyal fan bases. And as moated franchises scale ever larger with fans who never outgrow their pop-culture obsessions, entire industries of brand merch—from books and toys to clothing, snacks, and theme parks—grow along with them.

But the toy industry is also capitalizing on the nostalgia clinging to many of these brands. While some products are tied to newer hits like Bluey, many draw on franchises that are more than 30 years old, like Jurassic Park and The X-Files. These toys allow parents to introduce their children to the characters they grew up with, while also appealing to adult collectors. (See “Board Games Make a Comeback” and “Lego: New Stress Reliever for Adults.”)

Remember, toys are no longer just for children. As Millennials and Gen Xers continue to spend on the franchises of their youth, toy companies are finding that nostalgia can be just as profitable as attracting the next generation of fans.

Dear Readers,

I recently spoke at The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything conference in NYC, where I discussed the Fourth Turning and the transformative changes unfolding across society today. We covered the forces driving this period of upheaval and what may lie ahead.

I hope you enjoy the video.

Stay curious,

Neil Howe

Video Link: Crisis, Cycles and the Coming Reset

Prediction markets have grown nearly 30-fold over the last two years. Sports betting is driving much of that expansion.

—Pew Research Center

In the months leading up to the 2024 presidential election, prediction markets went from a niche curiosity to a mainstream obsession. Many observers argued that the “wisdom of the crowd” might prove more reliable than traditional polling. In the end, prediction markets favored Trump, even as most polls showed Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead.

Since then, prediction markets have exploded in popularity. According to a new Pew report, combined global trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket International, the world’s two largest prediction markets, totaled $810.2 million in July 2024. By April 2026, that figure had surged to $23.8 billion, an increase of 2,838% in less than two years.

Despite the attention prediction markets receive for political forecasting, sports betting is the industry’s primary growth engine. Since July 2024, sports-related contracts have accounted for 39% of all trading volume on Polymarket and an even larger 80% on Kalshi. Politics ranks second on Polymarket, making up 32% of trading volume, compared with just 7% on Kalshi.

Sports and political markets are highly event-driven. Trading activity tends to surge around major elections, championship games, and other headline-making events.

Prediction markets are increasingly competing with online sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, they can operate in states where sports betting is still illegal, such as California. They also appeal to newcomers by stripping away much of the jargon. Rather than navigating point spreads, parlays, and complex odds, users typically make a simple binary prediction: who wins and who loses. (See “Sharps and Beards: The Wacky World of Online Sports Betting.”)

The threat is significant enough that DraftKings has launched its own prediction market platform. Despite the move, the company's stock has fallen more than 30% over the past year. For now, investors view prediction markets as a disruptive force rather than a complementary product.

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Empty-nest Boomers now own more large homes than Millennial families. And the forces driving that trend could persist for decades.

—Redfin

According to a new analysis of Census data by Redfin, Baby Boomers own the largest share of America’s biggest homes. Boomers living in one- or two-person households own 28% of homes with three or more bedrooms. By comparison, Millennials with children own just 16% of such large homes. That’s a difference of 12 percentage points.

Across all household types, Boomers own 35.3% of large homes, followed by Gen X at 31.2%, and Millennials at 23.8%.

So why do Boomers still own so many big houses?

We’ve often written about Boomers’ tendency to “age in place.” (See “The Death of Senior Housing” and “Why Americans Are Spending More On Home Improvement.”) Unlike the GI Generation, which was more willing to embrace retirement communities, Boomers have shown a strong preference for staying put. Many want to remain near their children and grandchildren. Others continue to support multigenerational households or remain employed well past traditional retirement age. As a result, many Boomers continue to occupy the large homes in which they raised their families.

There is also a financial component. Many Boomers have either paid off their mortgages entirely or locked in low interest rates back in the 2010s. As a result, they have little economic incentive to sell. At the same time, many Millennials struggle to afford large homes when they do come onto the market.

Of course, this imbalance will not last forever. Many Millennials will eventually inherit these homes as their Boomer parents pass away. And some are already living in these homes. But the youngest large “baby boom” cohort, born in 1964, will not enter their high-mortality years until the late 2040s. In fact—and this comes from the SSA’s Longevity Visualizer—half of all couples born in 1964 won’t both be deceased until the year 2056. By that time (gulp!) the oldest Millennials will be in their early 70s.

So no, the imbalance won’t last forever. But unless something else changes, the demographic forces keeping large homes off the market today may remain in place for decades. (See “Who Will Buy All the Boomer Homes?”)

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