Dear readers,

On Friday, I joined my colleagues R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, and David Salem as a panelist on the latest episode of Protect the Pile.

We explain why the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz could mark a major turning point for markets. We also examine the oil shock, rising stagflation risk, and broader policy fallout, arguing that investors need to get more defensive as geopolitical risk collides with elevated asset prices.

I hope you find the conversation useful.

Stay curious,
Neil Howe

Dear readers,

This morning, I joined my colleagues R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, and David Salem as a panelist on the latest episode of Protect the Pile.

We covered the current state of the stock market, the outlook for crypto, Trump’s broader objectives, and several other themes shaping markets.

I hope you find the conversation useful.

Stay curious,
Neil Howe

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This afternoon, I sat down with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Washington Policy Analyst JT Taylor for a 46-minute conversation on the Fourth Turning.

We explore collapsing institutions, rising political violence, the continuing government shutdown, the fragile state of markets, and what it all means for investors.

Paid subscribers can watch the full conversation below. Don’t miss this webcast.

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Thank you for supporting Demography Unplugged!

This post is for all paid subscribers and contains the 2025 Global Demography Review webcast, which was originally published last week. It runs just over an hour. You can view the presentation below.

First, we examined trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. Then we explored US population projections. Here are a few of the big topics we covered:

• Fertility: Has US fertility rebounded? Or was last year a blip in the long-term trend?

• Mortality: Why haven't deaths returned to pre-pandemic levels? Is Covid-19 still a part of the picture?

• Immigration: How many immigrants are entering and leaving the country? How have these figures changed since Trump was elected?

• Mobility: What regions are Americans moving to, and where are they moving away from?

• Population Projections: What is the long-term outlook for US population growth? Will it ever turn negative?

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This morning, we filmed our 2025 US Demography Review. First, we examined trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. Then we explored US population projections. Here are a few of the big topics we covered:

• Fertility: Has US fertility rebounded? Or was last year a blip in the long-term trend?

• Mortality: Why haven't deaths returned to pre-pandemic levels? Is Covid-19 still a part of the picture?

• Immigration: How many immigrants are entering and leaving the country? How have these figures changed since Trump was elected?

• Mobility: What regions are Americans moving to, and where are they moving away from?

• Population Projections: What is the long-term outlook for US population growth? Will it ever turn negative?

This webcast, which runs 64 minutes, is available below to Premium subscribers. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF deck.

Other paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.

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Dear readers,

In my recent appearance on the Rabbit Hole, we had an in-depth conversation about Gen X and the Fourth Turning.

Here are some of the topics we discussed.

• Why generational transitions are slowing—and why that matters.

• The Gen X identity crisis: from latchkey kids to future elders.

• How community rises from conflict during Fourth Turnings.

• Millennials' collective investing mindset vs. Gen X contrarianism.

• The historical role of financial repression and inflation in crises.

• Parallels between Gen X and the Lost Generation.

• How institutions are built—and who builds them.

• Will the next societal reboot be state-driven or community-driven?

• Global synchronization of generational crises and what that implies.

• What comes after the fourth turning—and how Gen X fits into it.

It's a fun 52-minute conversation packed with insights on where the world may be headed. I invite you to listen and let me know your thoughts.

Stay curious,

-Neil Howe

Dear readers,

This morning, I guest-hosted The Macro Show with my friend Daryl Jones, Director of Research at Hedgeye.

During the show, we tackled three key topics:

1. One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA): The Real Cost

2. Fertility & Marriage: Red Zone vs. Blue Zone

3. US Population Trends by Region

We hope you enjoy this 36-minute webcast, packed with fresh insights on these political and economic shifts. As always, stay curious!

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Dear readers,

In my recent appearance on the David Lin Report, we explored why global alliances like NATO may be fracturing — and how Trump’s nationalist vision fits into the larger cycle of history described by the Fourth Turning.

It's a fast-paced 50-minute conversation packed with insights on where the world may be headed. I invite you to listen and le…

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This morning, I filmed a special webcast on Trump's first 100 days in office with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's veteran Washington Policy Analyst, and Michael Blum, Hedgeye's President.

Here are several of the topics we discussed:

• How are voters reacting to Trump’s boldest moves so far? Do they support his dismantling of federal programs and aggressive tariff agen…

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This morning, I filmed a special webcast on Trump's first three weeks in office with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's veteran Washington Policy Analyst, and Michael Blum, Hedgeye's President.

Here are several of the topics we discussed:

• What do voters think about President Trump thus far? Are they becoming more or less partisan? Do they support Trump's flood-the-zone…

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Earlier today, I had the privilege of hosting a webcast with Richard Jackson, renowned demographer, historian, and founder of the Global Aging Institute.

Last month, Christian and I took a panoramic overview of global demographics. This month, Richard and I discussed the social drivers and economic consequences of these trends. Here are a few of the questions we debate.

• What exactly is driving lower fertility rates worldwide?

• How will shrinking labor forces influence GDP growth and global trade?

• What challenges will aging populations pose for government spending?

• How plausible are the official UN population projections? Are they too pessimistic? Or could the future be even worse?

This 62-minute webcast offers exclusive insights into these critical issues and is available only to paid subscribers.

Don’t miss out on this in-depth discussion—upgrade today to unlock access.

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Thank you for supporting Demography Unplugged!

This post is for paid subscribers and contains the 2024 Global Demography Review webcast, which was originally published last week. It runs just over an hour. You can view the presentation below.

In this video, we discuss:

• Fertility: Where is fertility falling and rising? Where is childlessness on the rise?

• Mortality: In which countries is life expectancy improving? Have we recovered from the pandemic?

• Mobility: Where are people migrating to and from? Where are migrants sending their money?

• Population Projections: Which countries are expected to see a rise in the working-age population? When will the global population peak?

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This morning, we filmed our annual 2024 Global Demography Review. We examined demographic trends across the entire world. Here are a few of the topics we covered:

• Fertility: Where is fertility falling and rising? Where is childlessness on the rise?

• Mortality: In which countries is life expectancy improving? Have we recovered from the pandemic?

• Mobility: Where are people migrating to and from? Where are migrants sending their money?

• Population Projections: Which countries are expected to see a rise in the working-age population? When will the global population peak?

This webcast, which runs 64 minutes, is available below to Premium subscribers. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF deck.

Other paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.

Read more

Subscribe now

This morning, I filmed another special webcast with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's veteran Washington Policy Analyst, and Michael Blum, Hedgeye's President.

Trump has won the 270 electoral votes needed to reclaim the White House and is on track to win the popular vote. The GOP has also regained control of the Senate, flipping seats in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. And we are still awaiting the final results from the House.

In this 50-minute webcast, we discuss the initial results, exit polls, county data, and the “Trump Trade.” We also discuss the Senate and House races. And we provide insights into what may ultimately lie ahead for the United States. Yes, the Fourth Turning is here…

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Heading into the final weekend of Election 2024, uncertainty and anxiety hang heavy across America, with races for the White House, Senate, and the House of Representatives coming down to the wire. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump continue to barnstorm battleground states amid changing demographics, record amounts of cash, and a stubbornly small segment of the population still undecided.

The race for the White House is shaping up to be one of the closest in U.S. history.  Races for control of the House and Senate are tightening - and we still maintain that Republicans are heavy favorites to take the Senate while the Democrats are ever-so-slight favorites to reclaim the Speaker's gavel in the House. With records of over 50 million people already casting their votes early, Election 2024 now comes down to three things: turnout, turnout, and turnout.

We end the webcast by giving our final predictions. We hope you enjoy the full 61-minute video.

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With less than a month until the election, the presidential race remains neck and neck. Although Harris maintains a substantial lead in the national polls, the gap is narrowing. And Trump has taken a small lead in the betting odds. Ultimately, the final outcome may come down to one state: Pennsylvania. 

Keep in mind that there’s more than the White House at stake. At last count, the Democrats may be losing hope of keeping their grip on the Senate. West Virginia will certainly flip red; Montana Senator Jon Tester (D) is falling further behind in the polls; and it’s hard to find any other race in which the Democrats can make up the difference.

We hope you enjoy the full 50-minute webcast.

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We delved into the state of the race for the White House, House, and Senate, with the first Presidential debate behind us.

This special webcast will address key implications of recent events, new polling insights, and intensifying polarization as we approach November’s election. It will also discuss what this means for races in the House and Senate and provide insights into what may ultimately lie ahead for the United States as it approaches a critical juncture.

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I hope you enjoy the video.

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Yesterday, I filmed another special webcast with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's veteran Washington Policy Analyst, and Michael Blum, Hedgeye's President. We delved into the potential implications of Biden dropping out of the race and the uncertain trajectory of the 2024 presidential election.

I hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Yesterday, I filmed a special webcast with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's veteran Washington Policy Analyst, and Michael Blum, Hedgeye's President. Together, we discussed the escalating crisis in America following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump.

In this webcast, we explore the critical implications of recent events, the intensifying polarization as we approach November’s election, and what it means for races in the House and Senate. We also share insights into what may lie ahead for the United States as it reaches a pivotal juncture.

I hope you enjoy the discussion.

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