This post is for paid subscribers and contains the September edition of All About the Indicators, which was originally published last week. It runs just under an hour. You can view the presentation below.

In response to economic deceleration, the Fed has cut interest rates by half a percentage point. Both manufacturing PMIs are deeply negative. Credit-card charge-offs are up to 2008 levels. Average weekly hours sank again. And CPS employment growth is now negative YoY. Meanwhile, services remain strong; personal consumption is still humming; and the markets are obviously delighted that borrowing costs are falling.

The 2Y-10Y yield curve has by now fully uninverted, which is either a sign that a recession is nigh—or that Chairman Powell will indeed stick his soft landing.

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We’re back with the September edition of All About the Indicators, our monthly review of recession signals.

In response to economic deceleration, the Fed has cut interest rates by half a percentage point. Both manufacturing PMIs are deeply negative. Credit-card charge-offs are up to 2008 levels. Average weekly hours sank again. And CPS employment growth is now negative YoY. Meanwhile, services remain strong; personal consumption is still humming; and the markets are obviously delighted that borrowing costs are falling.

The 2Y-10Y yield curve has by now fully uninverted, which is either a sign that a recession is nigh—or that Chairman Powell will indeed stick his soft landing.

AATI #9, which runs 58 minutes, is available below to Premium subscribers. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF deck.

Other paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.

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This post is for paid subscribers and contains the August edition of All About the Indicators, which was originally published last week. It runs just under an hour. You can view the presentation below.

I take viewers through the whole waterfront of recognized macro recession signals and explain how to assess their various strengths and weaknesses. Some indicators are high likelihood but have short time horizons. Others are lower likelihood but give us a better perspective on our location in the business cycle. After this overview, I explain which indicators I think are most helpful and offer my view on the current recession outlook.

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We’re back with the August edition of All About the Indicators, our monthly review of recession signals.

I take viewers through the whole waterfront of recognized macro recession signals and explain how to assess their various strengths and weaknesses. Some indicators are high likelihood but have short time horizons. Others are lower likelihood but give us a better perspective on our location in the business cycle. After this overview, I explain which indicators I think are most helpful and offer my view on the current recession outlook.

AATI #8, which runs 57 minutes, is available below to Premium and comped subscribers. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF deck. Comped subscribers will receive a separate e-mail with both items shortly.

Other paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.

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Thank you for supporting Demography Unplugged!

This post is for paid subscribers and contains the March edition of All About the Indicators, which was originally published last week. It runs just over an hour. You can view the presentation below.

As we close out the first quarter of 2024, we still see both good and bad in markets and the economy. Since our last AATI, the S&P 500 has closed above 5200 and is up nearly 5%. Investors apparently don't care much about slowing retail spending, an uptick in unemployment, or another inflation report indicating higher for longer. Industrial production and manufacturing are better than they were last month but still %YoY negative. PMI surveys say the services sector is decelerating but disagree about manufacturing.

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We’re back with the March edition of All About the Indicators, our monthly review of economic signals.

As we close out the first quarter of 2024, we still see both good and bad in markets and the economy. Since our last AATI, the S&P 500 has closed above 5200 and is up nearly 5%. Investors apparently don't care much about slowing retail spending, an uptick in unemployment, or another inflation report indicating higher for longer. Industrial production and manufacturing are better than they were last month but still %YoY negative. PMI surveys say the services sector is decelerating but disagree about manufacturing.

AATI #7, which runs 61 minutes, is available below to Premium and comped subscribers. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF deck. Comped subscribers will receive a separate e-mail with both items shortly.

Other paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.

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We’ve seen a bump in subscribers recently—welcome! Today’s post is the latest of one of Demography Unplugged’s monthly features: All About the Indicators, a video series on macroeconomic indicators. These are a joint effort with Matthew Ahern, an analyst on my team.

Without further ado…

With the S&P hitting several all-time highs since our last video, how much more room does the market have to run?

Employment, for the moment, seems to be a tale of two surveys. While CES Non-Farm Payrolls point to continued strength, the CPS household data shows exhaustion. Total employment is declining, and even aggregate YoY hours (per the CES) have shrunk to zero. The February CPI print has pushed rate cuts back again, which the market has mostly shrugged off already.

AATI #6, which runs 52 minutes, is available below to Premium and comped subscribers. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF deck. Comped subscribers will receive a separate e-mail with both items shortly.

Other paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.

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We’re back with the first All About the Indicators of 2024.

With the market hitting record highs to start the year, where exactly is the economy? The labor market shows signs of cooling per the Beige Book and our own tracking indicators. Several major tech firms, such as Google and Amazon, have announced mass layoffs. Has manufacturing hit bottom, or will it continue to get worse from here?

AATI #5, which runs 64 minutes, is available below to Premium and comped subscribers. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF deck. Comped subscribers will receive a separate e-mail with both items shortly.

Other paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.

Subscribe now

Onward to the presentation…

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We’re closing out the year with December’s All About the Indicators.

With the Fed signaling a pause in rate hikes, the market steadily rose for most of the month and approached all-time highs before breaking its streak. Is this the soft landing, or are we headed for a bigger crash?

As a reminder, AATI and future video series are now paywalled. AATI #4 is available now to Premium and comped subscribers only. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF. Comped subscribers will receive a separate e-mail with both items shortly.

Other paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.

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We’re back from our holiday break with November’s All About the Indicators, our monthly review of economic signals.

Since our last show, easing global tensions and below-expectations inflation prints have cheered markets (pushing equity prices higher and bond yields lower) and have persuaded most analysts to downgrade the risk of a recession. Is this sunnier outlook justified?

As a reminder, AATI and future video series are now paywalled. AATI #3 is available now to Premium and comped subscribers only. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF. Comped subscribers will receive a separate e-mail with both items shortly.

Other paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.

Subscribe now

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In yesterday’s video, we discussed the possibility of re-accelerating inflation, which would be consistent with a higher-for-longer scenario. Just released today, the newest PCE numbers at first glance seem like good news. Both headline and core are down, with core reporting the lowest YoY growth since May 2021 at 3.68%. However, we saw a huge rise in t…

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We’re back with the second installment of All About the Indicators, our monthly review of economic signals. As the first month of Q4 comes to a close, we’re taking an updated look at our recession indicators.

Our first AATI video ended up being our most-viewed piece so far. Your feedback and shares mean a lot to us—thank you.

Some housekeeping before the video:

(1) Starting today, AATI and future video series will be behind the paywall. AATI #2 is available now to Premium and comped subscribers only. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF. Comped subscribers will receive a separate e-mail with both items shortly.

Other paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.

Subscribe now

(2) We’ve created a separate section on our site for AATI content (the videos and occasional Indicator Alerts e-mail updates). Everything can be found under the “Recession Indicators” tab. On Substack, readers have the option of subscribing or unsubscribing to individual sections if they choose. (Our other sections include, e.g., the podcast, NewsWires, and Signal & Noise.) If you would like to customize the kind of content you receive from us, follow these instructions.

On with the video…

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The U.S. 10Y yield has been soaring (from 4.18% to 4.61%) thus far in the month of September. It's not due to rising inflation expectations: The real 10Y yield on TIPS has also soared.

Why are real long-term rates rising? Sorry, it's not due to everyone betting on the nascent AI revolution bringing economic growth and returns on new tech. Rather, as I di…

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Earlier today, we received the exciting news that Demography Unplugged was selected as a featured publication in Substack Discover. If you found us there, welcome.

I’m proud to introduce All About the Indicators, a video series that I am producing with Hedgeye demographic analyst Matthew Ahern. This one is for all of the financial wonks. I take viewers through the whole waterfront of recognized macro signals and explain how to assess their various strengths and weaknesses. Some indicators are high likelihood but have short time horizons. Others are lower likelihood but give us a better perspective on our location in the business cycle. After this overview, I explain which indicators I think are most helpful and offer my view on the current recession outlook.

My hope is that viewers come away with a better understanding of recession indicators and a better grasp of how the economy is doing. We will be producing these videos monthly. Today’s installment is about 70 minutes long, so settle in and enjoy.

My team officially began publishing on Substack one month ago. We’re currently in a special launch period in which most of our content is being sent out to everyone for a limited time. Normally, All About the Indicators is sent to Premium subscribers only. But as a thank you to everyone who has joined us recently, we are sending this first installment out to all subscribers.

Premium Members, you still have exclusive access to the PDF presentation deck (nearly 200 pages) that goes with the video. You will be receiving it in a separate e-mail shortly.

As always, I welcome your feedback. Let us know what you think.