News:
A new report from FMI found that more than 75% of US adults now view meat and poultry as part of a healthy diet. That’s up from 64% in 2020, an +11 percentage point increase.
Trend:
Americans are becoming increasingly focused on protein, and this shift is now showing up in policy. New federal guidelines place greater weight on red meat and dairy while de-emphasizing whole grains. They also raise recommended protein intake from 0.8 grams per kilogram of body weight to as much as 1.6 grams.
At the same time, the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is increasing demand. Rapid weight loss can lead to muscle loss, pushing doctors to recommend higher protein intake to preserve lean mass.
On the supply side, the story is more complicated. Beef prices are at record highs, driven by a historically low US cattle herd after years of drought and high consumer demand. While the cycle is beginning to turn, the recovery will be gradual. Herd rebuilding takes time, and a meaningful increase in supply likely won’t materialize until 2028.
Source: USDA In the meantime, consumers are already adapting. Higher beef prices are pushing price-sensitive shoppers toward cheaper proteins like chicken.
One of the biggest beneficiaries of the protein boom is Tyson Foods ($TSN). Its scale across both beef and chicken allows it to capture demand regardless of where consumers shift.
Tyson also shut down one of its largest beef processing plants in January, reducing exposure to today’s tight cattle market. That move should help limit losses now and position the company to expand margins more efficiently as supply recovers.
In Practice:
The Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF ($HEFT) is long this trend through Tyson Foods ($TSN)