All About the Indicators #9

Join us as we step back and try to interpret the noisy September indicators.

We’re back with the September edition of All About the Indicators, our monthly review of recession signals.

In response to economic deceleration, the Fed has cut interest rates by half a percentage point. Both manufacturing PMIs are deeply negative. Credit-card charge-offs are up to 2008 levels. Average weekly hours sank again. And CPS employment growth is now negative YoY. Meanwhile, services remain strong; personal consumption is still humming; and the markets are obviously delighted that borrowing costs are falling.

The 2Y-10Y yield curve has by now fully uninverted, which is either a sign that a recession is nigh—or that Chairman Powell will indeed stick his soft landing.

AATI #9, which runs 58 minutes, is available below to Premium subscribers. Premium subscribers can view the video below and download the accompanying PDF deck.

Other paid subscribers, you will receive a link to the video only next week.