According to the CDC’s preliminary 2025 birth data, US fertility continues to decline. Births are rising among older women, but falling faster among the young.
—CDC
The US total fertility rate (TFR) fell from 1.599 in 2024 to 1.574 in 2025. That’s a -1.6% decline and, once again, the lowest reading on record. If you exclude the 2021 blip, the TFR has fallen for the last ten years.
Let’s break it down by age. The teen birth rate fell -7.1%, hitting a record low of 11.7 births per 1,000 women. Birth rates among women in their 20s also declined. But for those 30 and older, rates ticked slightly higher.
This trend towards older moms has steadily accelerated over the last 30 years. But these gains are not large enough to offset declines among younger women. For an offset to be effective, we would have to see a significant rise in the birth rate of 30-to 34-year-olds. But we aren’t seeing that. The birth rate for this group is the same in 2025 as it was in 2004. Over age 35, the absolute numbers are simply too small to matter.
We are currently preparing for our 2026 US Demography Review. And we will provide a more in-depth look at the state of US fertility. Here is a sneak peek: Don’t expect a birth rebound any time soon.