By the Numbers: Fertility Around the World
This week, we have new fertility data from the US, UK, Australia, and Malaysia.
#1. US: Black and White TFRs Converge
The CDC has released preliminary fertility data for the 12 months ending in Q2 2024. (CDC)
TFR Q2 2024: 1.621, +0.004 since CY 2023
Hispanic: 1.958, +0.008
Black: 1.543, -0.028
White: 1.533, +0.006
Our Take: The Q2 2024 total fertility rate was practically unchanged from CY 2023. But the data reveal two new trends.
After approaching each other since COVID-19, the TFRs for blacks and whites have now essentially converged. This is primarily due to a significant fertility decline among blacks: Between Q1 2022 and Q2 2024, the TFR for black women declined -4.2%, while the TFR for white women declined -3.3%.
The data also show a high TFR for Hispanics, but in reality, the rate is likely lower. The CDC records maternal race from birth certificates, while total population estimates come from the Census. The Census data use the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate trends in immigration. But in recent years, the ACS has reported lower immigration growth than other national surveys, likely undercounting the Hispanic population and inflating the TFR.
For an in-depth immigration analysis see our article, “What's Really Going On with Immigration?”
