By the Numbers: Metro Growth & Declining Fertility
This week, we have 2023 metro population data for the US + TFRs from Europe, Italy, and South Korea.
#1. US: Southern Metros Grow
The Census has released 2023 population numbers for metro areas. (Census Bureau)
10 Largest Metro Areas in Order of Pop. Size: 2023 Population Change
DOWN: New York (19.5M): -65.5K, -0.3% YoY
DOWN: LA (12.8M): -71.0K, -0.6%
DOWN: Chicago (9.3M): -16.6K, -0.2%
UP: Dallas (8.1M): +152.6K, +1.9%
UP: Houston (7.5M): +139.8K, +1.9%
UP: Atlanta (6.3M): +68.6K, +1.1%
UP: Washington, D.C. (6.3M): +39.1K, +0.6%
UP: Philadelphia (6.2M): +3.4K, +0.1%
UP: Miami (6.2M): +43.4K, +0.7%
UP: Phoenix (5.1M): +49.2K, +1.0%
Our Take: In 2023, population growth in metro areas largely mimicked regional patterns. The largest urban areas in the South recorded population increases. And the largest urban areas in the Northeast, Midwest, and West recorded population decreases. The Census hasn’t released data breaking down metro areas by suburbs and primary cities. Nevertheless, we predict that growth in suburbs will remain higher than in primary cities, but also that primary cities overall may record positive growth for the first time since 2021. For more information on regional population trends, watch our recent “2024 U.S. Demography Review.”
#2. South Korea: TFR (Once Again) Hits World Record Low
South Korea has released preliminary vital statistics for 2023. (Statistics Korea)
Births: 230K, -7.7% YoY
TFR: 0.72, -0.06
Deaths: 353K, -5.4% YoY
Natural Increase: -123K people, -2.4 per 1K people
Our Take: South Korea has broken another fertility record. In 2023, its total fertility rate fell to 0.72. That constitutes, once again, the lowest TFR in the world. Since 2006, the government has spent over 360T won ($270B) on pro-natalist programs. But none of these responses has reversed the downward trend. Ultimately, South Korea faces a steep mountain of cultural drivers keeping its TFR low. (For an in-depth analysis, see “South Korea’s Total Fertility Rate Falls Below One.”)
#3. Italy: Births Drop
Italy has released preliminary 2023 vital statistics (ISTAT)
Births: 379K, -3.6% YoY
TFR: 1.20, -0.04
Deaths: 661K, -7.4% YoY
Natural Increase: -282K people, -4.8 per 1K population
Net Immigration: 274K, +5.0% YoY
Migrants by County of Origin:
Ukraine: 7.9%
Albania: 7.0%
Bangladesh: 6.0%
Romania: 5.4%
Total Population (Jan 1. 2024): 59.0M, -0.01% YoY
Our Take: In 2023, births in Italy declined for the 15th consecutive year. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has often pledged to reverse Italy’s demographic decline: This year, the government allocated €1bn on pronatalist policies. But these programs will have no effect on the accumulating demographic momentum that is keeping births low: Italy’s TFR has been low for so long that the young adult population is today in rapid decline. Between 1994 and 2024, the number of 18- to 34-year-olds plummeted by almost five million people to 10.4M (-31.6%). So even if the total fertility rate increases significantly, the small number of women of childbearing age will put a low ceiling on the absolute number of births over the foreseeable future. A lack of young adults has also kept births low in Russia and China. (See “Will Demography Weaken Russia’s Military?” and “China’s Private Kindergartens Struggle to Survive.”)
#4. EU: TFR Declines
Eurostat has released a final report on 2022 fertility rates throughout the EU. (Eurostat)
Births (EU Member States): 3.9M, -5.1% YoY
TFR: 1.46, -0.7
5 Highest TFRs:
France: 1.79
Romania: 1.71
Bulgaria: 1.65
Czechia: 1.64
Slovakia: 1.55
5 Lowest TFRs:
Malta: 1.08
Spain: 1.16
Italy: 1.24
Lithuania: 1.27
Poland: 1.29
Luxembourg: 1.32
Our Take: Now that all 27 EU member states have officially submitted their 2022 birth data, Eurostat has released its final report. In 2022, the EU TFR declined to 1.46. That’s significantly below the US (2022: 1.66). Preliminary 2023 data indicate further declines in EU births.
Regionally, many of the lowest TFRs in Europe continue to be located in Mediterranean Europe. And France still holds the top spot. But it’s less clear than it used to be which region is highest or lowest overall. Northwest Europe, traditionally a relatively high-fertility zone, no longer looks so privileged—especially now that several states in Central/Eastern Europe (Czechia, Bulgaria, and Romania) now show TFRs of over 1.6.