By the Numbers: US Divorces Decline & EU Life Expectancy Rises
This week, we have US data on marriages + divorces. We also have vital statistics for the US, Japan, Singapore, and the EU.
#1. US: Marriages Up, Divorces Down
The CDC has released 2022 marriage and divorce statistics. (CDC)
Total Marriages: 2.1M, +4.1% YoY
Marriage Rate: 6.2 per 1K pop, +0.2 since 2021
Total Divorces: 674K, -3.1% YoY (45 Reporting States & DC)
Divorce Rate: 2.4 per 1K pop, -0.1 since 2021
Our Take: In 2022, the marriage rate returned to its pre-pandemic level. People who postponed their weddings during lockdowns finally tied the knot. Nevertheless, the marriage rate is still low compared to the historical average.
Meanwhile, the divorce rate declined, continuing a decades-long trend. The most obvious reason is that fewer people are getting married, and therefore, there are fewer marriages to break up. Yet even if you look at divorces as a share of new marriages, this too has been falling, albeit at a slower rate. This is due to a shifting composition effect. During the American High, almost everyone felt pressured to get married. Today, that is no longer true: Those who get married tend to be older, more educated, more affluent, more motivated, and more emotionally stable—which means their marriages are more likely to survive over time. (See “Millennials Turn to Prenups.”)
#2. US: TFR and Mortality Revised Downward
The CDC has released the final birth and death statistics for 2022. (CDC: Births & Deaths)
Birth Rate: 11.0 per 1K pop, +/-0.0% YoY
-0.1 from provisional reading
TFR: 1.66, +/-0.00 since 2021
-0.01 from provisional reading
Age-Adjusted Mortality Rate: 798.8 per 100K pop, -9.2% YoY
-35.0 from provisional reading
Life Expectancy: 77.5 years, +1.1 since 2021
Unchanged from provisional reading
Our Take: Both the TFR and age-adjusted mortality rate were slightly revised downward for 2022. But the overall pattern remains the same. The TFR was (with a rounding error) flat on a YoY basis. And the death rate declined but remained above pre-pandemic levels. For a more in-depth look at US vital statistics, watch our recent 2024 US Demographic Review.
#3. Japan: Population Declines
Japan has released 2023 total population numbers. (Statistics Bureau of Japan)
Total Population (Oct. 1, 2023): 124.4M, -0.5% YoY
Natural Increase: -837K, 6.7 per 1K pop
Net Immigration: 242K, 2.0 per 1K pop
Our Take: Japan’s population declined for the 13th year in a row. The fall has been entirely due to the decline in natural population growth. In fact, if you do the math, the native-born Japanese population is falling by almost 100 people every hour. (See “By the Numbers: Pedestrian Deaths and Declining Births.”) In contrast, net immigration rose for the second consecutive year. For the first time on record, the number of people aged 75+ surpassed 20M. This age group now makes up 16% of the total population.
#4. Singapore: Birth Decline Slows
Singapore has released preliminary 2023 vital statistics for official residents. (Statistics Singapore)
Births: 31K, -5.5% YoY
TFR: 0.97, -0.7
TFR by Ethnicity:
Malays: 1.65, -0.18
Indians: 0.95, -0.06
Chinese: 0.81, -0.06
Deaths: 26K, -0.1% YoY
Natural Increase: +5K, +1.2 per 1K people
Total Population: 4.1M, +1.9% YoY
Our Take: Last year, we predicted that the pace of Singapore’s birth decline would decelerate in 2023. We were right: In 2022, births declined by -7.9% YoY; in 2023, they declined by -5.5% YoY. While the direction is still negative, new baby bonuses may have slowed the decrease. (See “Demography Roundup #5.”) Singapore continues to have the second-lowest TFR in the world. Meanwhile, the fertility rates of the city state’s two largest ethnic groups continue to show a wide gap: The Chinese majority is registering a super-low TFR (0.81), while the poorer and primarily Muslim Malay minority has a much higher TFR (1.65).
#5. EU: Life Expectancy Increases
Eurostat has released a final report on 2022 life expectancy throughout the EU. (Eurostat)
Life Expectancy: 80.6 years, +0.5 since 2021
5 Highest Life Expectancies:
Spain: 83.2
Luxembourg: 83.1
Italy: 82.8
Ireland: 82.6
Malta: 82.4
5 Lowest Life Expectancies:
Bulgaria: 74.2
Latvia: 74.5
Romania: 75.1
Lithuania: 75.8
Hungary: 76.0
Slovakia: 77.0
Our Take: In 2022, EU life expectancy rose +0.5 years to 80.6. While life expectancy in Europe certainly exceeds that of the US (77.5), the EU figure still hasn’t returned to its pre-pandemic high (2019: 81.3). No surprise, the countries with the highest life expectancies were in Scandinavia and Western Europe generally, especially near the Mediterranean. And the countries with the lowest life expectancies were in Eastern Europe. This is the same pattern we saw before the pandemic.