By the Numbers: US Fertility Declines & Australia Projected to Keep Growing
This week, we have US data on 2023 births and population numbers by age. We also have population projections for Australia and vital statistics for Kazakhstan.
#1. US: Fertility Declines
The CDC has released preliminary 2023 birth data. (CDC)
Total Births: 3.6M, -2.1% YoY
TFR: 1.617, -0.040
Age-Specific Birthrates:
15-19: 13.2 per 1K women, -2.9% YoY
20-24: 55.4, -3.7% YoY
25-29: 91.0, -2.7% YoY
30-34: 95.1, -2.5% YoY
35-39: 54.7, -1.1% YoY
40-44: 12.6, +/- 0.0% YoY
Our Take: Late in the pandemic, after a big drop in 2020, the US experienced a mild rebound in fertility. But the rebound is over: In 2023, the TFR fell to a record low (1.62). Birthrates fell for every age bracket under 40. And the rates for the oldest mothers remained unchanged. Note that the birthrate once again fell for women ages 30-34; this is further evidence that Millennials aren’t just “putting off” having children. (See “So Much for the ‘Tempo Effect’.”)
