By the Numbers: US Fertility Declines & Australia Projected to Keep Growing
This week, we have US data on 2023 births and population numbers by age. We also have population projections for Australia and vital statistics for Kazakhstan.
#1. US: Fertility Declines
The CDC has released preliminary 2023 birth data. (CDC)
Total Births: 3.6M, -2.1% YoY
TFR: 1.617, -0.040
Age-Specific Birthrates:
15-19: 13.2 per 1K women, -2.9% YoY
20-24: 55.4, -3.7% YoY
25-29: 91.0, -2.7% YoY
30-34: 95.1, -2.5% YoY
35-39: 54.7, -1.1% YoY
40-44: 12.6, +/- 0.0% YoY
Our Take: Late in the pandemic, after a big drop in 2020, the US experienced a mild rebound in fertility. But the rebound is over: In 2023, the TFR fell to a record low (1.62). Birthrates fell for every age bracket under 40. And the rates for the oldest mothers remained unchanged. Note that the birthrate once again fell for women ages 30-34; this is further evidence that Millennials aren’t just “putting off” having children. (See “So Much for the ‘Tempo Effect’.”)
#2. US: Millennials Are the Largest Generation
The Census has released 2023 population numbers by age. (Census)
Population Size by Generations:
Homelanders (Ages 0-17): 72.8M, 21.7% of Total Population
Millennial (Ages 18-41): 107.5M, 32.1%
Gen X (Ages 42-62): 87.0M, 26.0%
Boom (Ages 63-80): 56.2M, 16.8%
Silent (Ages 81-98): 11.3M, 3.4%
GI (Ages 99+): 0.1M, 0.0%
Our Take: As Boomers have entered older age brackets, their population has steadily declined. As a result, Millennials are now the largest generation. Not only do they dominate the total population, but they dominate the workforce even more: Millennials make up 59% of the prime working-age population (ages 25-54), while Xers only account for 41%. Since the maximum size for Homelanders is constrained by low fertility rates, Millennials will remain the largest generation—barring a catastrophe—until they start passing away as elders.
#3. Australia: Population Projected to Keep Growing
Australia has released official population projections through 2071. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
Total Population:
2022: 26.0M
YoY Growth Rate: +2.1%
2071: 39.2M (Medium Scenario)
2023-2071 Average Annual Growth Rate: +0.8% (Medium Scenario)
Natural Increase:
2022: +117.4K, +4.5 per 1K pop.
2071: -43.0K, -1.1 per 1K pop. (Medium Scenario)
Net Immigration:
2022: +202.3K, +7.9 per 1K pop.
2071: +225.0K, +5.7 per 1K pop. (Medium Scenario)
Our Take: Under the “medium scenario,” Australia’s population is projected to keep growing for the next 50 years. And, while the official “medium” projection ends in 2071, its trajectory is certain to stay positive long past the year 2080, which is when the US Census Bureau says that the US population will peak. (See “2024 US Demography Review.”) Keep in mind that much of Australia’s growth will depend upon its high net immigration rate. Australia’s natural increase is projected to go negative in 2054. But this too is later than in the US, where the rate of natural increase is projected to go negative in 2038 (16 years earlier).
This projection assumes that Australia's TFR will decrease to 1.60 by 2027 (down from 1.63 in 2022) and remain steady thereafter. IMO, its TFR is likely to drop significantly below 1.60. The "low scenario" anticipates a constant TFR of 1.45. Ultimately, I predict the actual trend will fall somewhere between the medium (2071: 39.2M) and low (2071: 34.3M) scenarios. Even this future keeps Australia on a positive growth path for longer than the US.
#4. Kazakhstan: TFR Declines
Kazakhstan has released its 2023 vital statistics. (Bureau of National Statistics)
Births: 388.4K, -3.8% YoY
TFR: 2.96, -0.09
Deaths: 130.7K, -2.1% YoY
Natural Increase: +257.7K, +12.9 per 1K pop.
Net Immigration: +9.3K, +0.5 per 1K pop.
Total Population: 20.0M, +1.4% YoY
Our Take: Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan’s economy disintegrated and its TFR dropped below the replacement rate (2.1). It hit a low of 1.8 in the late 1990s. But Kazakhstan did what few other countries have managed to achieve: Over the subsequent 20 years, it raised its TFR well above the replacement rate, reaching a high of 3.3 in 2020. Demographers attribute this rise to two drivers: First, Kazakstan’s buoyant economy, fueled by rapidly growing oil, gas, and uranium exports; and second, high-fertility ethnic Kazakhs, who have been immigrating in large numbers into the country since the republic was founded, often replacing low-fertility Russian residents who migrated back home.
Other Turkic nations have experienced similar fertility booms in the 2000s—though none as remarkable as Kazakhstan’s. Uzbekistan (3.4) now has the highest TFR among Turkish countries; and all of the “Stans” east of the Caspian Sea have TFRs well over replacement. Turkey and Azerbaijan are both low-fertility exceptions.