By the Numbers: US Mortality Revised Upward
This week, we have US data on mortality. We also have vital statistics from Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.
#1. US: Mortality Still Above Pre-Pandemic Trend
The CDC has released preliminary Q1 2024 mortality data. (CDC)
Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates for All Causes:
Q1 2024: 773.2 Deaths per 100K
+0.91% QoQ
-2.0% YoY
12 Months Ending with Q1 2024: 745.1 Deaths Per 100k
-2.4% YoY
+4.2% since CY 2019
Our Take: At first glance, this mortality data may seem positive: The 12-month moving average declined by -2.4% YoY. But two concerning trends are lurking in the numbers.
First, the quarterly mortality rate has risen for the last two quarters, and unless there is a major decline in Q2 2024 mortality, the 12-month moving average will increase next quarter.
Second, the Q4 2023 mortality rate was revised upward by +2.2%. Now the CY 2023 mortality rate stands at 750.4 deaths per 100K people, still +4.9% above the 2019 rate (715.2). We are three years past the worst of the pandemic, yet the mortality rate is no better than it was in 2009.
Why are deaths not going down? America is still suffering from the adverse long-term chronic health trends that were present prior to the pandemic. What’s more, COVID-19 is still with us. Last CY, COVID-19 was the primary cause of death for 50K Americans. While this is a dramatic reduction from the worst of the pandemic, it’s still double the number of deaths caused by the flu in a typical year. COVID-19 remains the tenth leading cause of death in the US.
