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By the Numbers: US Mortality Revised Upward
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By the Numbers: US Mortality Revised Upward

This week, we have US data on mortality. We also have vital statistics from Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

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Demography Unplugged
Oct 01, 2024
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By the Numbers: US Mortality Revised Upward
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#1. US: Mortality Still Above Pre-Pandemic Trend

The CDC has released preliminary Q1 2024 mortality data. (CDC)

  • Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates for All Causes:

    • Q1 2024: 773.2 Deaths per 100K

      • +0.91% QoQ

      • -2.0% YoY

    • 12 Months Ending with Q1 2024: 745.1 Deaths Per 100k

      • -2.4% YoY

      • +4.2% since CY 2019

  • Our Take: At first glance, this mortality data may seem positive: The 12-month moving average declined by -2.4% YoY. But two concerning trends are lurking in the numbers.

  • First, the quarterly mortality rate has risen for the last two quarters, and unless there is a major decline in Q2 2024 mortality, the 12-month moving average will increase next quarter.

  • Second, the Q4 2023 mortality rate was revised upward by +2.2%. Now the CY 2023 mortality rate stands at 750.4 deaths per 100K people, still +4.9% above the 2019 rate (715.2). We are three years past the worst of the pandemic, yet the mortality rate is no better than it was in 2009.

  • Why are deaths not going down? America is still suffering from the adverse long-term chronic health trends that were present prior to the pandemic. What’s more, COVID-19 is still with us. Last CY, COVID-19 was the primary cause of death for 50K Americans. While this is a dramatic reduction from the worst of the pandemic, it’s still double the number of deaths caused by the flu in a typical year. COVID-19 remains the tenth leading cause of death in the US.

Source: CDC; Hedgeye

#2. Canada: Fertility Declines

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