By the Numbers: US Mortality Still Above Pre-Pandemic Trend & City Growth Turns Positive
This week, we have US data on mortality and urban population growth. We also have fertility data from Turkey and Ireland.
#1. US: Mortality Still Above Pre-Pandemic Trend
The CDC has released preliminary Q4 2023 mortality data. (CDC)
Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates for All Causes:
Q4 2023: 749.8 Deaths per 100K
+6.2% QoQ
-6.7% YoY
12 Months Ending with Q4 2023: 736.3 Deaths Per 100k
-7.8% YoY
+3.0% since 2019
Our Take: According to preliminary death data, the US mortality rate was 736.3 deaths per 100K people in 2023, marking a -7.8% YoY decline. While this decline is significant, the figure is still +3.0% above the 2019 rate (715.2 ). We are three years past the worst of the pandemic, yet the mortality rate is no better than it was in 2012, over a decade ago. Expect life expectancy in 2023 to rise YoY, but remain far below pre-pandemic levels—in fact, below any year between 2009 and 2019.
