By the Numbers: US Mortality Still Above Pre-Pandemic Trend & City Growth Turns Positive

This week, we have US data on mortality and urban population growth. We also have fertility data from Turkey and Ireland.

#1. US: Mortality Still Above Pre-Pandemic Trend

The CDC has released preliminary Q4 2023 mortality data. (CDC)

• Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates for All Causes:

  • Q4 2023: 749.8 Deaths per 100K

    • +6.2% QoQ

    • -6.7% YoY

  • 12 Months Ending with Q4 2023: 736.3 Deaths Per 100k

    • -7.8% YoY

    • +3.0% since 2019

• Our Take: According to preliminary death data, the US mortality rate was 736.3 deaths per 100K people in 2023, marking a -7.8% YoY decline. While this decline is significant, the figure is still +3.0% above the 2019 rate (715.2 ). We are three years past the worst of the pandemic, yet the mortality rate is no better than it was in 2012, over a decade ago. Expect life expectancy in 2023 to rise YoY, but remain far below pre-pandemic levels—in fact, below any year between 2009 and 2019.

Source: CDC; Hedgeye

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#2. US: City Growth Turns Positive