The CDC just released state total fertility rates for 2024. The highest rates were concentrated in the American heartland: Kentucky (1.80), North Dakota (1.81), Idaho (1.82), Nebraska (1.92), and South Dakota (2.04).
These states tend to be more socially conservative, with higher levels of religiosity and younger ages at first marriage. They also generally have lower costs of living and more affordable housing, making it easier for families to have children. (See “2026 US Demography Review.”)
In contrast, the lowest fertility rates were concentrated along the West Coast and in the Northeast: Massachusetts (1.38), Oregon (1.36), New Hampshire (1.35), Rhode Island (1.33), and Vermont (1.27). The District of Columbia had the nation’s lowest TFR at just 1.11. That’s 0.49 children below the national figure, 1.60. (Of course, many young people move out of cities to start a family.)
These states tend to have some of the nation’s highest housing costs and living expenses, making it more difficult for young families to afford children.
Middle America also recorded the largest year-over-year increases in fertility: Idaho (+0.03), Colorado (+0.04), Montana (+0.04), and South Dakota (+0.04).
Meanwhile, the largest declines were concentrated in the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast: Mississippi (-0.05), Florida (-0.05), Louisiana (-0.06), New Jersey (-0.06), and the District of Columbia (-0.09).