Chart of the Week: Fertility vs. Trump Vote
In the 2024 presidential election, there was a strong relationship between a state’s total fertility rate and the share of voters who supported Trump, with a correlation coefficient of 0.72. In other words, the Trumpier the state, the higher the fertility. (Note: The most recent data for state TFRs is from 2022.)
The average TFR for Trump states is 1.75, while the average TFR for Harris states is only 1.54. That’s a striking difference: 0.21 points. If the Redzone were a country, its TFR would be higher than any member of the EU. If the Bluezone were a country, its TFR would be down around Belgium’s. (See “On Cat Ladies and Fertility Rates” and “By the Numbers: TFRs by State.”)