Demography Roundup #2
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Demography Roundup #2
Cancer rates are rising among those under 40 + the latest TFR figures from South Korea and generational shifts in incarceration rates and drinking behavior.
#1: Cancer diagnoses rise among younger adults.
According to a new JAMA study, between 2010 and 2019, early-onset cancer diagnoses (i.e., among those under age 50) increased by +0.7%. By age bracket, increases were recorded among those aged 20-29 (+5.3%) and 30-39 (+19.0%). And decreases were recorded among those aged 40-49 (-6.1%) and under age 19 (-5.0%).
GI cancers recorded the largest increase in early-onset diagnoses (+14.8%), followed by endocrine cancers (+8.7%) and breast cancer (+7.7%). These cancers are all associated with obesity. In contrast, respiratory cancers saw the largest decrease (-35.3%), followed by brain cancer (-13.2%) and cancers in the male reproductive system (-12.6%).
Over the last several years, we have covered the rising risk for obesity-related cancers among Millennials and Xers. (See “Millennials at Higher Risk for Obesity-Related Cancers.”) These groups have also seen a rise in age-adjusted mortality from cancer. (See “The Dramatic Decline in Cancer Mortality.”) Of course, overall mortality from cancer remains very low for young adults. But as these birth cohorts grow older, they are likely to push these death rates higher than earlier-born cohorts at the same age.
#2: South Korea’s quarterly TFR hits a new low.
We don’t typically report on quarterly birthrate updates. But we’re making an exception for South Korea, which just hit a grim new milestone. The country’s total fertility rate (TFR), which has been the lowest in the world since 2013, fell to 0.70 in the April-to-June 2023 quarter according to Statistics Korea. That’s a fresh new low. The previous record was set with 2022’s annual TFR, which slumped from 0.81 in 2021 to 0.78. The latest quarterly figure suggests that the 2023 rate will slide to yet another new low.
The government has spent more than $210B since 2006 to encourage young people to get married and have kids. You name it, South Korea’s doing it: organizing matchmaking events, increasing cash payouts, extending parental leave. But to what end? Deaths have now outnumbered births for 44 consecutive months.
#3: The lifetime risk of incarceration among young black men has declined dramatically since the 1990s.
This fascinating study from Demography highlights a trend that we have often covered: the dramatic decline in crime rates and incarceration rates among young people that has occurred moving from Boomer and Gen-X cohorts to Millennial cohorts. (See “Millennials Drive the Secular Decline in Crime Rates,” “The Politics of Falling Crime,” and “Growing Old Behind Bars.”) The study focuses on young black men, who disproportionately suffered from the sharp rise in incarceration rates in the 1980s and ‘90s. They have subsequently benefited from the decline in incarceration rates in the years since.
Among black men born in 1981, 1 in 3 were incarcerated by their late 30s. But between 1999 and 2019, the lifetime risk of imprisonment among black males declined by nearly half (-44%). Black men born in 2001, therefore, have had a much reduced risk: less than 1 in 5. This shift has resulted in significantly different generational experiences of incarceration for late-wave Xers vs. late-wave Millennials. In 2009, by age 25, black men were more likely to serve a stint in prison (17.4%) than to graduate college (12.8%). But by 2019, this trend had reversed, with a bachelor’s degree (17.7%) now more common than prison (12.0%).
Another way to look at this dramatic shift is to compare black men by cohort. Keep in mind that in the graph below, the term “cohort” does not refer to birth cohorts, but to single-year cohorts based on the year that they turned 18 and were thus at risk of incarceration. The 1999 cohort, for example, refers to men born in 1981.
#4: Drinking declines among young adults, but rises among the 55+.
Over the last two decades, alcohol consumption has steeply fallen among young adults but risen among older age brackets. According to Gallup data, the share of Americans ages 18-34 who drink alcohol has fallen from 72% in 2001-2003 to 62% today. That’s a decline of -10 percentage points. In contrast, the share of those ages 55+ who drink has risen from 49% to 59%. That’s an increase of +10 percentage points. (Middle-aged brackets haven’t recorded a significant change.)
There is a generational narrative behind this trend. In 2001-2003, the 18-34 age bracket was dominated by Xers, and the 55+ age bracket was dominated by the Silent. Today, those age brackets are now dominated by Millennials and Boomers, respectively. Risk-averse Millennials have always drunk less than the previous two generations did at the same age (see “Where the Wild Things Aren’t”), and free-wheeling Boomers have always drunk more (see “Binge Drinking Surges Among Older Adults”). As generations age, they often bring conspicuous behaviors with them (for better or worse) as they enter new age brackets.
