Cocoa’s historic price spike has given way to a sharp correction. But while futures have collapsed, shoppers may not see relief on store shelves anytime soon.
Between 1980 and 2022, average annual cocoa futures consistently traded below $3,500 per metric ton. That changed in 2024 and 2025, when prices surged. Last May, prices hit $10,974 per metric ton. The spike was driven by severe supply disruptions: Cocoa farms in West Africa were battered by extreme weather and widespread crop disease.
In recent months, however, the rally has unraveled. Cocoa futures have plunged to around $3,150 per metric ton, down -68% from their May peak. (Prices have fallen even further since the chart below was created.)
So what’s driving the downturn? Supply is recovering. Weather conditions in Ghana and the Ivory Coast have improved, and crop yields are rebounding after last year’s disruptions. Forecasters now expect 2026 to produce the largest cocoa surplus since the pandemic began.
At the same time, demand is softening. According to Jefferies, 2025 chocolate sales volumes were down -1.5% YoY in the US, -6.6% in Italy, and -8.0% in Germany. Much of the decline reflects consumer pushback against higher prices, but the growing use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs may also be trimming chocolate consumption at the margins.
Unfortunately for chocolate lovers, the plunge in cocoa futures won’t translate into lower prices at checkout anytime soon. Manufacturers are still working through inventories purchased when cocoa was trading at elevated levels. Analysts expect those higher-cost stockpiles to last until at least mid-2026. And given the extreme volatility of West African agriculture, producers remain cautious about cutting prices too quickly.
The cocoa crash is a reminder that in global agriculture, boom-and-bust cycles can reverse just as quickly as they begin.
I would posit that another factor is quality. There has been a noticeable decline in the quality of chocolate for the big brands. I used to raid my kids Halloween stash for KitKat or Aero bars. Last Halloween the chocolate was frankly gross. The texture is chalky and unpleasant. Even my kids won't eat it. We threw a lot of the mini chocolate bars out, a first for our family.
It doesn't matter if the chocolate company fixes their recipe now that prices are down; they have lost me as a customer. I look at the chocolate bar display in the store now and feel mildly disgusted. I have to wonder how many others feel the same. Enshitification is a resonant theme in our culture at the moment, and it's for a reason.