Recession Indicators

Our analysis and notes on recession indicators: All About the Indicators video presentations (PDFs are sent to Premium subs only) and Indicator Alert posts.

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All About the Indicators #3

We’re back from our holiday break with November’s All About the Indicators, our monthly review of economic signals. Since our last show, easing global…

17 hrs ago •

Indicator Alert: PCE Deflator and Consumer Expectations

In yesterday’s video, we discussed the possibility of re-accelerating inflation, which would be consistent with a higher-for-longer scenario. Just…

Oct 27 •

All About the Indicators #2

We’re back with the second installment of All About the Indicators, our monthly review of economic signals. As the first month of Q4 comes to a close…

Oct 26 •

Indicator Alert: Disappearing Equity Risk Premium

The U.S. 10Y yield has been soaring (from 4.18% to 4.61%) thus far in the month of September. It's not due to rising inflation expectations: The real…

Sep 28 •

All About the Indicators #1

Introducing our first "crash" course on recession indicators.

Sep 21 •

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