America’s Baby Bust Just Got Worse: The CDC’s Surprise 2024 Downgrade

Last month, we released our 2025 US Demography Review, citing the CDC’s provisional 2024 total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.627. Typically, the early reading barely budges. But soon after our review, the CDC published its 2024 birth data and dropped a surprise: The TFR was revised downward to 1.599¹. The change flips 2024 from a mild rebound year to the lowest US fertility rate ever recorded.

So, what happened? The population denominator was flawed and still hasn’t been fully corrected. (FYI, we first questioned the accuracy of the data back in November. See “By the Numbers: Fertility Around the World.”)