Chart of the Week: Age at First Marriage vs. Trump Vote
In December, we examined the correlation between a state’s TFR and Trump’s share of the vote. We found that the Trumpier the state, the higher the fertility rate (r-value: 0.72). (See “Chart of the Week: Fertility vs. Trump Vote.”)
We have now identified an even stronger correlation: The r-value between a state’s median age at first marriage and the share of voters who supported Trump is -0.80. In other words, the Trumpier the state, the younger its residents get married.
Why does age at first marriage show a stronger correlation than the fertility rate? Early marriage is more prevalent among individuals who are religious and support traditional family structures—demographics that tend to lean Republican. While fertility is also influenced by religion and traditional values, it is affected by many additional factors (e.g., biology, economic prospects), which may dilute its association with voting patterns.
The average age of first marriage for Trump states is 28.4, while the average age for Harris states is 30.3—a striking difference of 1.9 years. The states with the youngest newlyweds are West Virginia (27.1), Idaho (27.0), and Utah (26.0). The states with the oldest newlyweds are California (31.2), Massachusetts (31.2), New York (31.4), and DC (31.7).
These are topics that very few seem to be discussing. Thank you Neil and Christian for all of the hard work in getting this type of information and analysis out there.